FINANCIAL STRESS: A SYMPTOM OR A CAUSE

Greg Mandel, the chief economist for BusinessWeek had raised a question "Is the market and economic turmoil nothing more than a crisis of confidence?" His question is in response to what has been told by Ben Bernanke to the Economic Club of New York on Oct. 15:

"At the root of the problem is a loss of confidence by investors and the public in the strength of key financial institutions and markets."

The Bernanke-Paulson paradigm is based on the rationale that the financial turbulence will cease as the confidence of the investors are restored, and they start putting money back into the stock markets and companies around the world. Here Mandel once again challenges the view. He asks "what if the Bernanke-Paulson view is wrong? What if financial stress is a symptom, not a cause?"

It is highly likely that over the years people have realized that the way cross-border technological transfer, foreign trade and financial integration have taken place cannot be maintained over a longer period of time. The U.S transferred technology and business know-how to other low-wage emerging economies like India and China. The goods and services produced on a massive scale in these emerging economies were moved to the U.S assuming that there will be perpetual consumption demand. And, the financial flow was from the rest of the world to the U.S to finance their trade deficit.

This is good till such time your consumption demand is backed by your earning potential. You cannot pay back your debt with falling income. By BusinessWeek's calculations, in the U.S, real weekly earnings for college grads without an advanced degree have dropped every year since 2002.

Thus the panacea to the current crisis is not just restoration of investors' confidence but, developing innovative new products and services that the U.S can produce and sell in the global markets. It's high time for the U.S policymakers to get back to action to reduce the external borrowings the country has to do, and help create a sustainable global economy.

Posted By: Anirban Dutta